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Backcountry Access Road Closure

Due to recent storm damage, the access road to the northern trailhead is closed until further notice. Please use alternate routes.

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Backcountry Avalanche Forecast West South

Issued
Thursday, October 15, 2026 - 6:00PM
Expires
Friday, October 16, 2026 - 6:00PM
Author
Rachel Fryan

The Bottom Line

Give slopes where avalanches can start, run, and stop a wide berth Wednesday. Very dangerous conditions and large natural avalanches may occur during periods of heavy precipitation, rapidly rising temperatures, and blowing snow.

Avalanche Danger

Friday, October 16, 2026

Upper Elevations
8000-6500ft
4 - High
Middle Elevations
6500-5500ft
4 - High
Lower Elevations
5500-3500ft
3 - Considerable

Elevation Band Descriptions

Avalanche Problems (2)

Problem #1: Storm Slab

Problem Type
Storm Slab
Aspect/Elevation
NESWNWNESESW
Likelihood
Unlikely
Possible
Likely
Very Likely
Certain
Size
Small (D1)
Large (D2)
Very Large (D3)
Historic (D4-5)

All the pieces are in place for natural slab avalanches Wednesday; potentially weak snow surfaces, rising temperatures, heavy precipitation, and strong winds. Its less about if the avalanches will occur and more about when. If you travel out of the deep dark forest, steer around all slopes where avalanches can start, run, and stop. Natural avalanches will be most likely during periods of blowing snow, heavy precipitation, and when snow changes to rain. 

The bulk of the precipitation seems to impact Paradise and to a lesser extent Mt St Helens and Mt Adams. That doesn’t mean other areas are in the clear. Several days of stormy weather lay ahead and some slopes could be pushed past their breaking point as temperatures warm and more water accumulates.

Problem #2: Wet Loose

Problem Type
Wet Loose
Aspect/Elevation
NESWNWNESESW
Likelihood
Unlikely
Possible
Likely
Very Likely
Certain
Size
Small (D1)
Large (D2)
Very Large (D3)
Historic (D4-5)

When snow transitions to rain, start thinking about wet avalanches. Natural loose wet, and possibly even wet slab, avalanches will occur. Don’t let these easy to predict loose wet avalanches surprise you. Steer away from steep slopes and be leery of traveling above or around terrain traps where even a small avalanche could harm you. At mid-elevations, where more snow accumulates before switching to rain, you could see wet slab avalanches. These can be incredibly hard to predict. Any wet slide will be larger and could travel further as warming temperatures affect higher elevations. 

Rising temperatures and rain at ridgecrest brings naturally failing cornices to mind. Avoid traveling on or under these potential unique avalanche hazard.

Forecast Discussion

Heavy snow Tuesday night turns to rain and high-elevation snow Wednesday as snow levels climb. New snow is sitting on a slick crust from late January, and strong southwest winds are building deeper slabs on lee slopes near and above treeline. Expect storm slabs to be easy to trigger and capable of running full track wherever more than a foot of new snow has accumulated.

As rain soaks into the new snow below about 4,500 ft, wet loose avalanches become the concern. Avoid travel on or beneath open slopes steeper than 35 degrees, and give terrain traps and gullies a wide berth. This is a day to keep it simple: stick to low-angle, well-supported terrain.

Mountain Weather · Afternoon Forecast

Issued
Thursday, October 15, 2026 - 2:30PM
Author
Rachel Fryan

Tonight

Thu Oct 15

Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers before midnight. Light to occasionally moderate ridgeline winds.

Tomorrow

Fri Oct 16

Cloudy, with light rain and snow developing in the morning, and becoming moderate to locally heavy in the afternoon. Light to moderate ridgeline winds increasing in the afternoon.

Night

Snow (in)
T–1"
Crystal Mountain
T–1"
White Pass
T–1"
Mt St Helens
T–1"
Tieton River — Darland Mt
T–1"
5000' Temperatures (°F)
25 / 23
Snow level (ft)Ridge wind (mph)
Evening3,500' snow levelW5–10Light
Night3,500' snow levelSW5–10Light

SnowT–2", 1–7", 5–16", 12"+Snow level; none, freezing level<2,000', 2,000', 3,000', 4,000', 5,000', 6,000', 7,000', 8,000', 9,000', 10,000'+

This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions. It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.